採択課題 【詳細】
| jh250035 | 人機一体気象モデリングで拓く次世代メソアンサンブル気象予測システム |
|---|---|
| 課題代表者 | 澤田洋平(東京大学大学院工学系研究科) Yohei Sawada (Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo) |
| 概要 | 洪水をもたらすような地域レベルの豪雨を正確に確率予測することを目指した次世代のメソアンサンブル気象予測システムを、大規模プロセス駆動型シミュレーションと機械学習の協調により実現する。新しいシステムは初期値・境界値のみならず、モデルパラメータなどのシミュレーションに内在する不確実性を陽に考慮することができる。さらに、極端気象発生時のみアンサンブル数を生成AIによって増加させることで平常時に計算資源を節約しつつ、正確で網羅的な気象予報を実現する。 |
| 関連Webページ | |
| 報告書等 | 研究紹介ポスター ／ 最終報告書 |
| 業績一覧 | (1) 学術論文 （査読あり） |
| [] Yohei Sawada, Masashi Minamide, Yuyue Yan, Kazumune Hashimoto, Le Duc, 2026, Data‐Driven Exploration of Tropical Cyclone's Controllability, Geophysical Research Letters, 53 (6) | |
| [] Md. Rezuanul Islam, Tsutao Oizumi, Le Duc, Takuma Ota, Takuya Kawabata, Yohei Sawada, 2026, Beyond the Single-Hazard Framework: A Proof-of-Concept Study of Multihazard Worst-Case Scenarios from Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Hagibis (2019), Weather and Forecasting, 41 (4), 675-694 | |
| [] Khanh Hung Mai, Duc Le, Kazuo Saito, Futo Tomizawa, Yohei Sawada, 2026, Blended Parameterization in an Atmospheric Model: Improving Severe Storm Ensemble Prediction by Considering Uncertainties in Model Physics, Weather and Forecasting, 41 (1), 23-39 | |
| (2) 国際会議プロシーディングス （査読あり） | |
| [] Le Duc, Y. Sawada, Geometry of rainfall ensemble means: a new idea to deliver large and complex ensemble rainfall forecast for early warning for all, Asia and Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) annual meeting, 28 July -1 August, 2025, Singapore (Oral) | |
| [] Sawada, Y., Le Duc, Yuyue Yan, Kazumune Hashimoto, Masashi Minamide, Ensemble Kalman Control: Mathematical Platform to Explore Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability, Asia and Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) annual meeting, 28 July -1 August, 2025, Singapore (Oral) | |
| [] Hiura, N., Le Duc, Y. Sawada, Ensemble Data Assimilation with Binary Observations: Theory and Application to Urban Flood Monitoring, Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) annual meeting, 25-30 May, 2025, Chiba, Japan (Oral) | |
| [] Sawada, Y., Le Duc, Yuyue Yan, Kazumune Hashimoto, Masashi Minamide, Ensemble Kalman Control: Mathematical Platform to Explore Tropical Cyclone’s Controllability, Japan Geoscience Union (JpGU) annual meeting, 25-30 May, 2025, Chiba, Japan (Oral) | |
| (3) 国際会議発表（査読なし） | |
| [] Islam, M. R. and Y. Sawada, Advancing Decision Intelligence: Objective Evaluation of Historical Tropical Cyclone Risk, 22nd Annual Meeting of Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS), 2025, July (Invited-Oral) | |
| [] Islam, M. R., Le Duc, Y. Sawada, T. Oizumi, T. Ota, and T. Kawabata. Defining Multi-Hazard Worst-Case Scenarios: Insights from Large Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasts, 3rd International Workshop on Typhoon Science and Technology Research (IWTRC), 2025, October, (Oral) | |
| [] Islam, M. R., Le Duc, Y. Sawada, T. Oizumi, T. Ota, and T. Kawabata. Pushing the Boundaries of Forecasting: Multi-Hazard Worst-Case Scenarios from Large Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasts. AMS Annual Meeting, Houston, Texas, 24-29 January, 2026 (Oral) | |
| [] Duc, L., Naoki Hiura, and Y. Sawada (2025). Interval data assimilation: a data assimilation scheme where all observation are intervals. The 11th International Symposium on Data Assimilation, Melbourne, Australia. | |
| (4) 国内会議発表（査読なし） | |
| 該当なし | |
| (5) 公開したライブラリなど | |
| 該当なし | |
| (6) その他（特許，プレスリリース，著書等） | |
| 該当なし |
無断転載禁止